La libertad y la comprensión histórica. Los límites de la historia contrafactual

Abstract

History thinking is torn between the charms or rationalism and the fatigues of skepticism. Determinism is one of its legacies. Against it, Niall Ferguson's contra-factualism based in the scientific theory of chaos is raised. The question «what would have happened if...?» offers itself as a method that vindicates freedom and contingency as it affirms the plurality of paths that each action faces. Nevertheless, it opposes the restraint of supporting itself not on the subjective radicality of the choice, but on the complexity of successions at each crossroad of life, similar to those of physical phenomena. For Ferguson, historical determinism is nonviable which is due to the limitations of calculation not to the nature of what is human. Chaos-history implies, therefore, the multiplication of determinism and a powerful temptation for a more imaginative than real history.